On Nov. 5, the CEP released
preliminary results for the first-round presidential
election held on Oct. 25, which prescribed a
presidential run-off between PHTK's Jovenel Moïse and
LAPEH's Jude Célestin on Dec. 27. The Nov. 8 release of
results for the second-round legislative elections, also
held on Oct. 25, occurred with much less fanfare. While
most attention has been fixed on the contested
presidential results, the legislative results may be
even more significant for the political future of Haiti.
Presidential Race
According to the CEP's results,
PHTK's Jovenel Moïse (32.81%) and LAPEH's Jude Célestin
(25.27%) were the top two finishers, while Moïse
Jean-Charles of
Pitit Dessalines finished third (14.27%) and
Fanmi Lavalas'
Maryse Narcisse came in fourth (7.05%).
Broken down by region, Jovenel Moïse's strongest
showing was in the north of the country; his share of
the vote in the Nord Est, Nord Ouest, and Nord
departments was 62.6%, 54.6%, and 48.6%, respectively.
His worst results came from the Sud Est, where he
received only 14.9% of the vote. For runner-up Jude
Célestin, his popularity was highest in the Sud Est,
where he won 46.7% of the vote while in the Nord it was
lowest at 9.9%. Célestin's share of the vote in this
department was likely squeezed by the strong appeal of
Jovenel Moïse and Moïse Jean-Charles.
Pitit Dessalines'
Jean-Charles finished third and scored highest in the
Artibonite (17.1%) and the Nord (29.1%), which
Jean-Charles represented as a Senator for many years.
Prior to that, under the Aristide government,
Jean-Charles was the mayor of Milot, just outside the
capital of the Nord, Cap-Haïtien. Fourth-place finisher
Maryse Narcisse did the best in the Ouest (14.7%) and
the Sud (11.8%).
The presidential tallies released by the CEP
cannot necessarily be taken at face value. While OAS, EU
observers and the Core Group have endorsed the results,
Haitian civil society groups have denounced the massive
fraud they claim occurred on Oct. 25 and called for an
independent investigation. Seven presidential candidates
have added their voice to this call, including Célestin
and third- and fourth-place finishers Moïse Jean-Charles
and Maryse Narcisse. Accusations that political party
mandataires were able to vote multiple times, ballot-box
stuffing, and manipulation of results at the Tabulation
Center have undermined many Haitians' confidence in the
announced results. Haiti appears to be on the cusp of a
post-electoral crisis, whose outcome is far from
determined.
If the preliminary results are allowed to stand,
Haiti's next president will possess an extremely weak
mandate to govern. According to the CEP's figures, over
73% of registered Haitian voters deciding to stay home
on Oct. 25, a percentage which may in reality be higher
if multiple voting by
mandataires
was as widespread as many suspect. Repeating the pattern
of the Aug. 9 vote, the turnout for Oct. 25's
presidential race was again lowest in the Ouest
department at 20.3%. Turnout was highest in the Nord Est
(38.8%) and Nippes (37.2%) departments. Jovenel Moïse
was thus able to finish first with the support of only
8.7% of registered voters, while Jude Célestin came in
second with only 6.7% of registered voters backing him.
In the second round scheduled for Dec. 27, Haitians
could be asked to choose between two candidates who were
the first choice of less than 16% of registered voters.
The proportion of tally sheets (procès
verbaux) not recuperated by the CEP after Oct. 25
was 2.2%. Overall, tally sheets from 296 polling
stations were not received by the CEP. This is much
lower than after the first round vote in August, when
nearly 18% of tally sheets never arrived at the
Tabulation Center. Undoubtedly, this was due in large
part to violence and disorder occurring on a much
smaller scale during the presidential balloting. In only
two places - Borgne (Nord) and Côtes-des-Fer (Sud Est) -
was voting
severely
disrupted. Limonade
was another constituency where a high proportion of
tally sheets (38%) were not counted. At the regional
level, most departments had only 1-2% of presidential
tally sheets go missing. However, one region - the Sud
Est - stands out, with 9.4% of tally sheets not
received. This is also the department where Jude
Célestin got the highest proportion of the vote.
The higher proportion of recuperated tally sheets
may also be due to improvements in election day
logistics. On both Aug. 9 and Oct. 25, UNOPS was
responsible for picking up tally sheets and others
sensitive electoral materials collected at the
Bureaux Electorals
Departementaux (BEDs) and transporting it to the
Tabulation Center. Members of the CEP, however, have
accused UNOPS of
poor disorganization and a lack of planning on Aug. 9,
resulting in numerous tally sheets being lost. UNOPS
reportedly received increased funding from international
donors and made several improvements prior to the Oct.
25 vote. On the other hand, PHTK candidate Antoine Rodon
Bien Aimé recently accused UNOPS of orchestrating a
massive fraud on
Oct. 25, involving real tally sheets being switched for
counterfeit ones during transportation.
The CEP also excluded from the presidential vote
totals 490 tally sheets, amounting to 3.6% of the total,
either due to fraud, tampering, or clerical errors.
Intriguingly, the two regions where PHTK's Moïse
received the most support are also those that recorded
the highest number of quarantined tally sheets: the Nord
Est (9.8%) and the Nord Ouest (6.4%). It is difficult to
know, however, where the biggest problems were on Oct.
25 since the CEP has not provided any breakdown of
reasons why the tally sheets were quarantined.
This lack of transparency concerning decisions
made at the Tabulation Center has been a major criticism
of Haitian observer groups, who have demanded more
information about the decision-making procedures used to
quarantine tally sheets. Given that far fewer tally
sheets were quarantined during the 2010 elections (312),
which the U.S. alleged were plagued by fraud, greater
clarity on this issue seems like an eminently reasonable
demand.
Legislative Races
With all eyes fixed on the outcome
of the presidential races, far less attention has been
given to what is perhaps the most significant story told
by the preliminary results: Haiti's next legislature
will feature a formidable pro-Martelly bloc, regardless
of who becomes president.
In the Chamber of Deputies, 93 races have already
been decided. The 25 races that had to be rerun on Oct.
25 due to violence in August will have a second round on
Dec. 27 to determine the winners, while the legislative
race in Côte-de-Fer will also have to be rerun.
President Martelly's PHTK leads all parties with 26
deputies, while allied parties - namely Prime Minister
Evans Paul's KID, Martelly advisor Youri Latortue's AAA,
Steeve Khawly's Bouclier and former paramilitary leader Guy Philippe's
Consortium -
have claimed a further 19 deputy seats.
Pro-Martelly parties thus already have a combined
45 of 93 seats locked in, and another 21 candidates
going to the second round. The second political force
will be parties with roots in René Préval's 2006
Lespwa
coalition. Vérité
(15 deputies),
Inite (4 deputies) and LAPEH (4 deputies) will hold
a total of 23 seats in the Chamber of Deputies, and have
another 10 candidates in the second round. Parties that
claim support from the historic Lavalas base -
Fanmi Lavalas
(5 deputies),
Renmen Ayiti (2 deputies),
Pitit Dessalines
(1 deputy) - have a total of 8 seats and 8 candidates in
the second round.
The dominance of Martelly-aligned parties is less
marked in the Senate, but that could change after the 6
second-round races set for Dec. 27 (due to the level of
irregularities in August, senate races in 3 departments
had to be rerun in October). KID (3 Senators), PHTK (2
Senators) and AAA (1 Senator) hold a total of 6 out of
14 Senate seats already decided, while
Vérité holds 3 seats and Fanmi
Lavalas and
Pitit Dessalines hold one seat each. With 9 Senate
candidates from pro-Martelly parties going to the second
round, this bloc is bound to increase its representation
in the Senate by at least 3 seats, and could conceivably
take all 6 seats in the three regions (Grand'Anse, Nord,
Centre) when the second round is held. If so,
Tet Kale-aligned
parties would hold 12 of the 20 Senate seats. Of the 10
Senators with two years still remaining for their terms
in office, 4 are from
Inite, 3 from
OPL, 2 from Steven Benoît's
Alternative,
and one from Fanmi
Lavalas.
Whether or not Jovenel Moïse ultimately wins the
presidency, if the current results stand Michel
Martelly’s political succession is assured. The
ascendancy of Martelly's
Tet Kale party
and its allies, however, represents less a growth in
popularity than an ability to consolidate the ill-gotten
gains of Aug. 9. All of which does not augur well for
political stability in Haiti.
The
Haiti Elections
Blog is a collaboration of the Institute for Justice
& Democracy in Haiti, the Center for Economic and Policy
Research, 1804 Institute, Haiti Support Group, the
National Lawyers Guild International Committee, and
International Association of Democratic Lawyers.
|